ABS: Home Lending on the rise again10 October 2019
The impacts of lower interest rates and an improvement in banking credit conditions has seen housing finance, both for owner occupiers and investors improve sharply in August.
Total lending for the month of July was up 2.8% on the previous month with investor loans up 5.6% and owner occupier loans up 1.9%.
Whilst the monthly increase has seen strong gains on the previous month, lending is still well below the same month of last year with Investor loans still down -13% on last year and owner occupiers down -2%.
Owner Occupier loans are down about -10% from the peak in August 2017 while Investor loans are down -48% from the peak in April 2015.
The improvement in lending is a welcome sign to the regulators who have been closely monitoring the recent interest rate reductions as they battle a weakening economy.
(Repeat) Subject to their being no external shocks, we expect a similar rise in lending over the next 6 months as borrowers return to the real estate market. Tightening supply conditions over the next 6-12 months will then likely lead to above average pricing increases in 2020/2021.