Sydney predicted to have the highest growth in luxury residential property prices in 2024

7 December 2023

Sydney is predicted to have the highest growth in luxury residential property prices of the Australian cities in 2024, according to Knight Frank research.

Knight Frank’s Global Prime Residential Forecast found the New South Wales’ capital sits in fifth place out of 25 cities globally for predicted prime property price growth next year, with 5% growth forecast.
Prime property is generally defined as the top 5% of property in each market.

Melbourne came in at number 8 for forecast growth in prime residential property prices over 2024, with an expected rise of 3%.

Globally, Knight Frank’s latest projections for prime prices in 2023 and 2024 were revised upwards by the global research network in its Global Prime Residential Forecast, foreseeing an average growth of 2.4% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024.

Dubai leads the price forecast for 2023 with 14% growth envisaged, while Auckland (+10%) is the frontrunner for 2024.

Both Sydney and Melbourne were in the list of 10 cities in Knight Frank’s Global Prime Residential Forecast that had seen an improvement in the luxury property price growth forecast for 2024.

The 5% growth figure forecast for Sydney is a 2% increase on the original forecast for prime property price growth in 2024, made six months ago by Knight Frank, and is the second highest forecast price growth revision for next year behind Auckland.

Meanwhile, Melbourne is 5th place for forecast price growth revision for 2024, with its growth forecast revised upwards by 1% to 3%.

Both cities have also had better growth in luxury residential property prices than predicted over 2023, with price growth forecasts up to the end of this year also revised upwards.

Sydney’s forecast for luxury residential property growth for 2023 has been revised upward from 0% to 3%, while Melbourne’s forecast has been revised upwards from -1% to 1%, reflecting the better than expected performance of these two cities over 2023.

According to Knight Frank local research, Perth and the Gold Coast are each forecast to have 4% growth in luxury residential prices over 2024, while Brisbane is forecast to have 3% growth.

Knight Frank Head of Residential Research in Australia Michelle Ciesielski said cautious optimism was emerging in the luxury residential property market globally, with prime buyers appearing confident that economic headwinds were easing.

“In Australia, buyer appetite is strengthening, while supply of prime properties is constrained,” she said.

“The limited number of exceptional and most desirable prime residential property listings continues to create a price floor under many luxury Australian properties.

“This undersupply of luxury homes is one of the key factors set to shape the performance of the Australian prime residential market in 2024, with inflation and interest rates also set to play a big role.

“In saying that, in this upper echelon of the market, we are seeing an increasing number of cash buyers, with the proportion being 60% of all prime residential property sales in Sydney and 65% in Melbourne.

“Climate risk, geopolitical tensions and currency shifts are also expected to impact the Australian luxury property market.

“Amongst these risks there are opportunities, however, with property set to continue to appeal as a means to diversify and spread risk, being seen as a safe haven for capital.”

Prime residential property has outperformed most other asset types over a 10-year period, with 55% growth, according to Knight Frank’s Prime Global Cities Index. It came in second behind oil, with growth of 110% over the same timeframe.

Knight Frank Head of Residential in Australia Erin van Tuil said in pockets of prime suburbs around Australia, record sale prices were being achieved, with some taking place before an advertising campaign takes place.

“Many of these properties are located on the waterfront, large estates and on the upper levels of apartment towers with panoramic views,” she said.

“The super-prime end of the market – especially A$20m-plus – is doing exceptionally well, with no shortage of buyers and limited homes.

“Most buyers are local Australian buyers, with a notable absence of foreign buyers committing to sales, despite enquiries.

“Relative to other Australian cities, Melbourne has counted more prime luxury product built over the past couple of years, which has made prime prices lag the stronger performance in other Australian cities.

“Melbourne is also still recovering from an extended lockdown in the pandemic, with city seeing many residents move interstate to Queensland and the slower return of international investors which the city relies heavily on.”

Knight Frank research shows in Sydney 5% of prime property buyers are foreign buyers, while in Melbourne it’s 10%.