Investors Chase ‘Recession-Proof’ Retail Assets

10 December 2025
Investors Chase ‘Recession-Proof’ Retail Assets

Cashed-up private buyers are making an aggressive end-of-year push into Australia’s commercial property market, targeting assets considered resilient in volatile economic conditions. According to The Australian Financial Review, nearly $50 million in fast-food outlets, medical centres and childcare facilities was secured at a major Sydney auction this week, underscoring how strongly investor appetite has rebounded.

The auction, held by Burgess Rawson from CBRE, saw $49.96 million of assets change hands, lifting the agency’s annual sales volume to roughly $1.75 billion already well ahead of last year’s total. The standout interest came from fast-food properties, long regarded as stable income performers due to consistent customer demand and nationally recognised tenants.

Across Queensland and NSW, quick-service restaurants collectively achieved $16.54 million in sales, while childcare centres delivered another $9.07 million. Notable results included the ground lease of a McDonald’s in Cairns selling for $5.035 million at a tight 3.38% yield, and a Hungry Jack’s in Sydney’s north-west achieving $7.455 million at a 4.49% yield. Although most deals reflected firm pricing, some outliers, such as Oliver’s in Gundagai and a Bega retail centre, traded at yields above 9%, highlighting pockets of value for yield-driven buyers.

Yosh Mendis, national partner at Burgess Rawson from CBRE, said investor confidence in “essential service” categories has been a dominant theme throughout the year. He noted that premium brands such as McDonald’s and Hungry Jack’s remain particularly coveted due to their strong covenants and scarcity. “When brand-new assets from national operators come to market, competition intensifies quickly,” he said.

Childcare assets also drew keen interest. Goodstart Early Learning in Idalia sold for $3.455 million at a 4.41% yield, while a Little Seedlings centre in Wyee changed hands for $2.71 million on a 5.54% yield. With construction and land costs escalating, Mendis expects supply of new facilities to tighten in 2026, putting further pressure on pricing for modern, long-lease properties.

Industry analysts say the renewed activity signals a potential shift in the broader retail property cycle. MSCI’s head of private assets research, Ben Martin-Henry, observed that large institutions have quietly begun returning to the market—typically a sign that pricing has stabilised and transactional momentum is improving.

Despite retail development across Australia forecast to fall sharply over the next five years, demand from global brands and domestic networks remains strong. For investors seeking stable cash flow and defensive performance, essential-service retail looks set to remain front-of-mind heading into 2026.