Regions to Reign ahead of Olympics: southerners flee to QLD with 500,000 new dwellings expected

As Queensland prepares for the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games to generate $8.1 billion in economic and social benefits and the population to reach almost 6.5 million by 2036, the regions are expected to boom as southern states and international migration flow to our regions.

As the EKKA is currently showcasing regional Queensland and all it has to offer, these same regions are set to experience significant growth as they are positioned to be major beneficiaries of the state’s largest capital program, an impressive $89 billion initiative outlined in the state budget.

Over 65 per cent of the $13.3 billion expected to be spent in the next financial year will be directed to areas outside of Greater Brisbane.

This substantial investment is expected to fuel development and prosperity in regional parts of Queensland with 84 per cent of the 500,000 new dwellings to be located outside of the Brisbane local government area.

Regional Queensland is expected to see the population grow from 1.4 million to almost 1.6 million by 2036, an 11 per cent increase from 2023, or an additional 162,583 people, which is over three quarters more than the previous decade.

Colliers Queensland State Chief Executive Simon Beirne predicts “the regions are expected to boom in the lead up to the Olympics.

“Not only are we seeing strong overseas migration, but we are also witnessing strong interstate migration to Brisbane from people being displaced from Sydney and Melbourne due to affordability, where the median house price in Q1 2023 was $1,890,000 and $1,060,000 respectively.

This in turn will see a ripple effect where people in Metro Brisbane, where the median house price is currently $995,000, will migrate to wider SEQ and into regional areas which offer far more affordable housing options. The current median house prices are $400,000 in Townsville $520,000 in Toowoomba, $550,000 in Ipswich and $560,000 in Cairns.

“As further infrastructure and amenities are introduced, and the population projected to increase, some areas will experience growth at a more significant level than others.

“With many of the venues located in South East Queensland, this region is expected to benefit the most however Cairns and Townsville are also expected to see growth, with neighbourhoods in suburbs near Olympic venues experiencing significant population growth.

Games competition venues will include 22 in Brisbane, six on the Gold Coast, four on the Sunshine Coast, two interstate (Sydney and Melbourne) and three in regional Queensland (Cairns, Townsville and Toowoomba).

Barlow Park in Cairns and Toowoomba Sports Ground will receive major upgrades to host the football preliminaries. Queensland Country Bank Stadium in Townsville will also host football games.

Most of the available land in SEQ is in Logan with the potential to yield 110,493 dwellings and Ipswich with the potential to yield 97,608 dwellings.

In Regional Queensland, Townsville could cater for 40,207 dwellings, Mackay 14,925 dwellings, and Cairns 20,296 dwellings.

Over the next decade, the Games are expected to provide various benefits to the state, such as boosting the economy, creating jobs, and attracting investment and trade.

Simon Beirne said previous host cities of Olympic Games had seen long-term benefits in the form of increased housing demand, resulting in healthy price growth.

“Property values in Sydney surged by 57 per cent between the announcement of the 2000 Olympics in 1993 and the actual event, Barcelona saw increases of 130 per cent in housing prices ahead of the 1992 Olympics and London witnessed house price growth following the 2012 Olympics.

“It is expected that similar benefits will be seen in Brisbane, which will flow on to SEQ and our regional areas.”

Recent statistics showed the pandemic had boosted interstate migration, which had sped up population growth.

Colliers Queensland Research Manager Pragya Sharma said the Regional Movers Index had underlined the dominance of Queensland among the top five regions nationwide exhibiting the largest share of net internal migration flows in the year to June 2023.

“There has been a significant increase in city dwellers relocating to regional areas, reaching the fourth highest level since 2018.

“The Sunshine Coast claims the first position in the latest reporting, followed by the Gold Coast, and Fraser Coast, all securing a spot in the top five list.

“Additionally, regions such as Toowoomba, Cairns, and Townsville have also witnessed growth driven by factors like affordable housing, job opportunities, and a thriving economy.

As affordability continues to be a pressing issue in Sydney and Melbourne, Queensland stands out as a more affordable alternative. With a variety of affordable options available in both Brisbane and across the entire state, Queensland remains an attractive choice.

Sunshine Coast – Colliers Sunshine Coast Managing Director Nick Dowling

The Sunshine Coast population is estimated to increase by 32 per cent to nearly 471,366 people by 2036.

This anticipated growth, combined with the region’s advantageous position to leverage the benefits of infrastructure development and opportunities related to the Olympics, will continue to drive the Sunshine Coast’s growth and prosperity.

“The 2032 Olympics offer a remarkable opportunity for the Sunshine Coast in the coming decade.

“The region is vibrant and dynamic, evidenced by the numerous construction cranes dotting the skyline. Rapid population growth continues to create numerous opportunities across the region.”

Gold Coast – Colliers Gold Coast Director In Charge Steven King

The Gold Coast is still benefiting from infrastructure upgrades from hosting the Commonwealth Games in 2018. With the population to increase by 199,716 people, a 31 per cent increase, by 2036 and an impressive pipeline of projects and substantial investments in infrastructure, including the anticipated benefits of hosting events during the 2032 Olympics, the Gold Coast is poised for continued growth. The Gold Coast offers attractive investment opportunities, with property prices 47 per cent below that of Sydney metro and 6 per cent below the Melbourne metro.

“The Gold Coast property market across all sectors continues to remain one of Australia’s most resilient, bolstered by high numbers of migration and significant new infrastructure and investment projects. Famed for its natural amenities and idyllic lifestyle, our iconic coastal destination is one of the fastest growing economies in the country with interstate migration fueling some of the strongest population.

“The market across all sectors including residential, retail, office and industrial are benefiting from a constriction of new project starts due to rising construction costs. This is in turn making investment across all asset classes attractive and retaining property values and yields.

“As the Gold Coast gears up to play a part in the Olympics Games in 2032, city-changing projects are expected to become a reality, which over time makes investing in the city a very attractive proposition despite the obvious temporary headwinds of interest rate increases and inflation.”

Townsville – Colliers Managing Director Townsville Peter Wheeler

Townsville stands as a city of abundant opportunities, due to its strategic location, economic
diversity, and commitment to infrastructure development, the city is actively pursuing opportunities
to secure a lasting legacy for the region from the Olympics.

“Townsville is in the midst of a once-in-a-generation transformation. The hype very much remains around critical minerals and green energy, which North Queensland can provide in spades. There is no doubt that the ongoing interest in all areas of the local property market is being driven by these sectors.

“While properties continue to move, the market still remains starved of both investment and vacant stock. Values are strong and rising for existing vacant or semi-vacant buildings that are attractive to the owner occupier market. The lack of availability and the persisting construction challenges for new buildings is keeping the upward pressure on prices, but also putting the brakes on new development.”

Cairns – Colliers Cairns Managing Director Stacey Quaid

Cairns is already recognized as a premier tourist destination in Australia and hosting of the Olympics is expected to inject spending of over $20 billion in tourism, with $10 billion allocated for regional areas. Cairns also serves as a pivotal centre for a wide range of industries and sectors, making it a vital economic powerhouse in the region.

“The Olympics present a tremendous opportunity for Cairns, as it will create new employment prospects, stimulate local businesses, and likely attract a larger population, ultimately benefiting the overall regional economy.

“Cairns will continue to draw population owing to its relatively affordable property market, particularly when compared to the South East Queensland area.”

Toowoomba – Colliers Toowoomba Managing Director Dan Dwan

The next decade is expected to bring further economic development and population growth to Toowoomba, partly driven by the Olympics. As other regions in SEQ grapple with soaring property prices, more individuals are turning their attention to Toowoomba. This shift is fuelled by factors such as affordability, a robust pipeline of infrastructure investments, strong residential market fundamentals, and a thriving local job market.

“Toowoomba stands as one of Queensland’s third largest economies among regional cities, attracting individuals from all walks of life with its appealing lifestyle, abundant job opportunities and affordable housing options.

“Toowoomba is more connected than ever before thanks to the Toowoomba Wellcamp Airport, the first major greenfield public airport development in Australia in over 50 years, providing interstate, intrastate and international connectivity for the region.

“Toowoomba offers businesses viable investment opportunities for expansion and relocation in response to current scarcity in the market for available properties and surge in demand.”

Regions to Reign is the third report in a series of Colliers research reports detailing the benefits to SEQ and Queensland that will flow on from the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

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